What are the main risks in the Middle East?

 

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Turkey’s in-tervention in northern Syria has complicated U.S. and partnered security efforts, as U.S. and Turkish objectives clash with regard to the role and reach of Syrian Kurdish forces. Additionally, Arab-Kurd ten-sions present a specter of a civil war to come. Washington could also reduce support to lo¬cal Syrian rebels in order to deescalate ten¬sions with Russia, Assad, and Turkey. Help Iraq find some solution to the post-ISIS tensions and divisions between its Sunnis and Shi’ite and Arabs and Kurds. These ef¬forts cannot be separated from the threat to Iraq posed by an unstable Syria, and the con¬flicting pressures on Iraq from Iran, Turkey, and outside Arab states. Some form of feder¬alism may be needed, Restructure its relations with a post-coup “Erdogan” Turkey whose relations with the United States and Europe have become steadily more authoritarian, and that is in¬tervening actively in Syria and Iraq. Turkey presents a steadily growing prospect of become a repressive and divisive regime that could lock itself into excessive security measures and pro¬long conflict with its own Kurds while seeking to intervene to deal with Kurds and Turkoman minorities in Syria and Iraq. Turkey will at best be a difficult strategic partner, and is a major “wild card” the Trump administration will have to deal with.

 

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Critical issues facing the U.S. and the world in the year ahead.

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1. WHAT ARE THE MAIN NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES FACING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION?

2. IS THE FOUNDATION OF THE U.S.-LED ORDER CRUMBLING?

3. WHAT GLOBAL ECONOMIC RISKS DO WE FACE?

4. WILL RUSSIA CONTINUE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF SPOILER?

5. HOW SHOULD WE VIEW CHINA’S RISE?

6. CAN AMERICA STILL RELY ON ITS ALLIES?

7. HOW MUCH SHOULD WE SPEND ON DEFENSE?

8. DO WE NEED A NEW STRATEGY TO PREVENT TERRORIST ATTACKS ON THE UNITED STATES?

9. WHAT ARE THE MAIN RISKS WE FACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

10. WHAT OPTIONS DO WE HAVE IN SYRIA?

11. WHAT ARE THE KEY ENERGY CHOICES FOR THE NEW ADMINISTRATION?

12. WHAT COULD A U.S.-MEXICO PARTNERSHIP LOOK LIKE?

13. HOW CAN MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS WORK IN AMERICA’S INTEREST?

14. WILL THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SUSTAIN U.S. LEADERSHIP ON GLOBAL HEALTH?

15. WHAT ROLE SHOULD VALUES PLAY IN AMERICAN STRATEGY?

[ Download file of “2017 Global Forecast”]

 

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